Who won James Madison vs App State?

App State Mountaineers won 34-31. Maiden picked James Madison Dukes at 82% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 80% to 85% have won 40 of 46 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the James Madison vs App State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with App State Mountaineers hosting James Madison Dukes. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 8 · Oct 22, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC

James Madison Dukes at App State Mountaineers — result and pick review

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Result

✗ Pick wrong

James Madison Dukes 31, App State Mountaineers 34

Our pick missed: James Madison Dukes lost 31-34. We had them at 82%, and it stays on the record.

James Madison Dukes, 82% to win. We project them by 15.2.

The numbers

Our pick	James Madison Dukes
Chance they win	82%
Our projected spread (James Madison Dukes)	-15.2
Our projected score (James Madison Dukes first)	35-20
Projected total	55.4
Our picks at 80% to 85% confidence	40-6 (87%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (James Madison Dukes)	-12.5
Total	56.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Oct 18, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won James Madison vs App State?: App State Mountaineers won 34-31. Maiden picked James Madison Dukes at 82% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 80% to 85% have won 40 of 46 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the James Madison vs App State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with App State Mountaineers hosting James Madison Dukes. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.