Week 8, 2026 college football picks
Every game we have a call on this week — the side we pick to win and our probability. The games we ran and decided not to call are here too, marked, so you can see what we left alone and why. Kickoffs run Tuesday, October 20 through Saturday, October 24.
46
games we call
10
we ran and left alone
46
settled so far
309-90
record, all season
77%
picks correct
Tuesday, October 20
- Missouri State Bears at Delaware Blue HensWon ✓
Delaware Blue Hens, 62% to win
Projected total 54.2
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Florida International PanthersLost ✗
Florida International Panthers, 78% to win
Projected total 47.7
- South Alabama Jaguars at Marshall Thundering HerdToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
Wednesday, October 21
Thursday, October 22
Friday, October 23
- Massachusetts Minutemen at UConn HuskiesWon ✓
UConn Huskies, 90% to win
Projected total 54.9
- Duke Blue Devils at Virginia CavaliersLost ✗
Virginia Cavaliers, 56% to win
Projected total 49.5
- Army Black Knights at Tulsa Golden HurricaneWon ✓
Army Black Knights, 61% to win
Projected total 49.1
- Air Force Falcons at Wyoming CowboysLost ✗
Air Force Falcons, 66% to win
Projected total 43.5
- NC State Wolfpack at Stanford CardinalLost ✗
NC State Wolfpack, 72% to win
Projected total 57.5
- Texas Tech Red Raiders at Cincinnati BearcatsLost ✗
Texas Tech Red Raiders, 74% to win
Projected total 57.7
- Colorado Buffaloes at Oklahoma State CowboysWon ✓
Oklahoma State Cowboys, 64% to win
Projected total 51.1
- BYU Cougars at UCF KnightsLost ✗
BYU Cougars, 66% to win
Projected total 48.3
- Baylor Bears at Kansas JayhawksToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
Saturday, October 24
- Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo RocketsWon ✓
Toledo Rockets, 66% to win
Projected total 48.3
- Rice Owls at Florida Atlantic OwlsWon ✓
Florida Atlantic Owls, 73% to win
Projected total 57.1
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Northwestern WildcatsWon ✓
Northwestern Wildcats, 81% to win
Projected total 53.9
- Pittsburgh Panthers at Miami HurricanesWon ✓
Miami Hurricanes, 88% to win
Projected total 54.9
- California Golden Bears at SMU MustangsWon ✓
SMU Mustangs, 84% to win
Projected total 52.4
- West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned FrogsLost ✗
TCU Horned Frogs, 79% to win
Projected total 56.2
- LSU Tigers at Auburn TigersWon ✓
LSU Tigers, 59% to win
Projected total 47.3
- Miami (OH) RedHawks at Central Michigan ChippewasWon ✓
Miami (OH) RedHawks, 55% to win
Projected total 44.6
- Oregon Ducks at Illinois Fighting IlliniLost ✗
Oregon Ducks, 70% to win
Projected total 56.8
- Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo BullsWon ✓
Buffalo Bulls, 67% to win
Projected total 45.5
- Sacramento State Hornets at Ball State CardinalsWon ✓
Ball State Cardinals, 72% to win
Projected total 54.7
- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Northern Illinois HuskiesWon ✓
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors, 59% to win
Projected total 43.9
- North Texas Mean Green at Navy MidshipmenWon ✓
North Texas Mean Green, 59% to win
Projected total 64.4
- Michigan State Spartans at UCLA BruinsWon ✓
UCLA Bruins, 79% to win
Projected total 49.4
- Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden GophersLost ✗
Iowa Hawkeyes, 71% to win
Projected total 44
- Boston College Eagles at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsLost ✗
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 73% to win
Projected total 50
- Tennessee Volunteers at South Carolina GamecocksLost ✗
Tennessee Volunteers, 61% to win
Projected total 55.4
- Oklahoma Sooners at Mississippi State BulldogsWon ✓
Oklahoma Sooners, 55% to win
Projected total 50.8
- Kansas State Wildcats at Arizona State Sun DevilsLost ✗
Kansas State Wildcats, 56% to win
Projected total 57.6
- UL Monroe Warhawks at Troy TrojansLost ✗
Troy Trojans, 87% to win
Projected total 49.3
- Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ohio BobcatsWon ✓
Ohio Bobcats, 84% to win
Projected total 52
- Old Dominion Monarchs at Louisiana Tech BulldogsWon ✓
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, 65% to win
Projected total 48.3
- Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Southern Miss Golden EaglesLost ✗
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, 63% to win
Projected total 53.2
- San José State Spartans at Nevada Wolf PackWon ✓
Nevada Wolf Pack, 57% to win
Projected total 47.2
- Boise State Broncos at Washington State CougarsWon ✓
Boise State Broncos, 64% to win
Projected total 51.1
- San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State RamsLost ✗
San Diego State Aztecs, 58% to win
Projected total 58.8
- Virginia Tech Hokies at Clemson TigersLost ✗
Clemson Tigers, 65% to win
Projected total 51.1
- Utah State Aggies at Texas State BobcatsWon ✓
Texas State Bobcats, 72% to win
Projected total 59.6
- USC Trojans at Wisconsin BadgersLost ✗
USC Trojans, 61% to win
Projected total 50.7
- Syracuse Orange at North Carolina Tar HeelsLost ✗
North Carolina Tar Heels, 68% to win
Projected total 49.5
- Iowa State Cyclones at Arizona WildcatsWon ✓
Arizona Wildcats, 62% to win
Projected total 50.4
- Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky WildcatsWon ✓
Kentucky Wildcats, 66% to win
Projected total 54.4
- North Dakota State Bison at New Mexico LobosWon ✓
New Mexico Lobos, 70% to win
Projected total 48
- Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan WolverinesNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Akron Zips at Kent State Golden FlashesToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Texas A&M Aggies at Alabama Crimson TideNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Georgia State Panthers at Arkansas State Red WolvesToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Ole Miss Rebels at Texas LonghornsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- UTSA Roadrunners at Tulane Green WaveNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Houston Cougars at Utah UtesNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Delaware Blue Hens, 62% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 68% call that loses is a 68% call that lost, not a bad model.
One number per row, and it is the probability. We do project a margin for each game, and it is on the game page where there is room to label it — but it is context, not a call, and nobody is graded on it. No sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page, and neither does anyone else’s number.
A short board is the honest one. We publish only where our model clears its gates, so a week with a lot of close games has fewer picks on it — the games we leave out are the ones we would be guessing at. Those games are still listed, greyed out, and each one has a page saying which gate stopped it. A pick we did not make is part of the record too.