Who won Kansas State vs Arizona State?

Arizona State Sun Devils won 28-17. Maiden picked Kansas State Wildcats at 56% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Kansas State vs Arizona State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Arizona State Sun Devils hosting Kansas State Wildcats. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 7:45 PM UTC

Kansas State Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils — result and pick review

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Result

✗ Pick wrong

Kansas State Wildcats 17, Arizona State Sun Devils 28

Our pick missed: Kansas State Wildcats lost 17-28. We had them at 56%, and it stays on the record.

Kansas State Wildcats, 56% to win. We project them by 2.6.

The numbers

Our pick	Kansas State Wildcats
Chance they win	56%
Our projected spread (Kansas State Wildcats)	-2.6
Our projected score (Kansas State Wildcats first)	30-28
Projected total	57.6
Our picks at 55% to 60% confidence	32-16 (67%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Kansas State Wildcats)	-1
Total	51.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Oct 18, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Kansas State vs Arizona State?: Arizona State Sun Devils won 28-17. Maiden picked Kansas State Wildcats at 56% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Kansas State vs Arizona State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Arizona State Sun Devils hosting Kansas State Wildcats. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.