Massachusetts Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets — result and pick review
Result
✗ Pick wrongSacramento State Hornets 6, Massachusetts Minutemen 35
Our pick missed: Sacramento State Hornets lost 6-35. We had them at 58%, and it stays on the record.
Sacramento State Hornets, 58% to win. We project them by 3.4.
The numbers
| Our pick | Sacramento State Hornets |
| Chance they win | 58% |
| Our projected spread (Sacramento State Hornets) | -3.4 |
| Our projected score (Sacramento State Hornets first) | 28-24 |
| Projected total | 51.9 |
| Our picks at 55% to 60% confidence | 32-16 (67%) |
That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.
We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.
Market average
| Spread (Sacramento State Hornets) | +4.5 |
| Total | 49 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 20, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
Tomorrow's free picks, by email
One email each morning with the day's free picks, before the games start. Our free beginner's guide comes with it. Unsubscribe anytime.
Frequently asked questions
- Who won Massachusetts vs Sacramento State?
- Massachusetts Minutemen won 35-6. Maiden picked Sacramento State Hornets at 58% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?
- Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
- Where does the Massachusetts vs Sacramento State win probability come from?
- We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Sacramento State Hornets hosting Massachusetts Minutemen. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.