Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightBoise State Broncos 38, Memphis Tigers 20
Our pick landed: Boise State Broncos won 38-20. We had them at 67%.
Boise State Broncos, 67% to win. We project them by 7.5.
The numbers
| Our pick | Boise State Broncos |
| Chance they win | 67% |
| Our projected spread (Boise State Broncos) | -7.5 |
| Our projected score (Boise State Broncos first) | 32-25 |
| Projected total | 56.6 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Boise State Broncos) | -8.5 |
| Total | 56 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, football included, published before anything starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Frequently asked questions
- Who won Memphis vs Boise State?
- Boise State Broncos won 38-20. Maiden picked Boise State Broncos at 67% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Memphis vs Boise State win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Boise State Broncos hosting Memphis Tigers. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.