Who won Middle Tennessee vs Marshall?

Marshall Thundering Herd won 28-26. Maiden picked Marshall Thundering Herd at 87% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 85% to 90% have won 33 of 38 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Middle Tennessee vs Marshall win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Marshall Thundering Herd hosting Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd — result and pick review

Share result

Result

✓ Pick right

Marshall Thundering Herd 28, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26

Our pick landed: Marshall Thundering Herd won 28-26. We had them at 87%.

Marshall Thundering Herd, 87% to win. We project them by 18.8.

The numbers

Our pick	Marshall Thundering Herd
Chance they win	87%
Our projected spread (Marshall Thundering Herd)	-18.8
Our projected score (Marshall Thundering Herd first)	37-18
Projected total	54.3
Our picks at 85% to 90% confidence	33-5 (87%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Marshall Thundering Herd)	-13
Total	57

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

Tomorrow's free picks, by email

One email each morning with the day's free picks, before the games start. Our free beginner's guide comes with it. Unsubscribe anytime.

Frequently asked questions

Who won Middle Tennessee vs Marshall?: Marshall Thundering Herd won 28-26. Maiden picked Marshall Thundering Herd at 87% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 85% to 90% have won 33 of 38 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Middle Tennessee vs Marshall win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Marshall Thundering Herd hosting Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.