Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightMarshall Thundering Herd 28, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26
Our pick landed: Marshall Thundering Herd won 28-26. We had them at 87%.
Marshall Thundering Herd, 87% to win. We project them by 18.8.
The numbers
| Our pick | Marshall Thundering Herd |
| Chance they win | 87% |
| Our projected spread (Marshall Thundering Herd) | -18.8 |
| Our projected score (Marshall Thundering Herd first) | 37-18 |
| Projected total | 54.3 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Marshall Thundering Herd) | -13 |
| Total | 57 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won Middle Tennessee vs Marshall?
- Marshall Thundering Herd won 28-26. Maiden picked Marshall Thundering Herd at 87% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Middle Tennessee vs Marshall win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Marshall Thundering Herd hosting Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.