Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers — result and pick review
Result
✗ Pick wrongMinnesota Golden Gophers 13, Mississippi State Bulldogs 38
Our pick missed: Minnesota Golden Gophers lost 13-38. We had them at 58%, and it stays on the record.
Minnesota Golden Gophers, 58% to win. We project them by 3.5.
the market leans Mississippi State Bulldogs — we're on Minnesota Golden Gophers anyway.
The numbers
| Our pick | Minnesota Golden Gophers |
| Chance they win | 58% |
| Our projected spread (Minnesota Golden Gophers) | -3.5 |
| Our projected score (Minnesota Golden Gophers first) | 30-26 |
| Projected total | 55.5 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Minnesota Golden Gophers) | +0.5 |
| Total | 54.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won Mississippi State vs Minnesota?
- Mississippi State Bulldogs won 38-13. Maiden picked Minnesota Golden Gophers at 58% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Mississippi State vs Minnesota win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Minnesota Golden Gophers hosting Mississippi State Bulldogs. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.