Who won Missouri State vs SMU?

SMU Mustangs won 34-24. Maiden picked SMU Mustangs at 96% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 95% to 100% have won 30 of 31 college football games, 97%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Missouri State vs SMU win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with SMU Mustangs hosting Missouri State Bears. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 4 · Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC

Missouri State Bears at SMU Mustangs — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

SMU Mustangs 34, Missouri State Bears 24

Our pick landed: SMU Mustangs won 34-24. We had them at 96%.

SMU Mustangs, 96% to win. We project them by 29.2.

The numbers

Our pick	SMU Mustangs
Chance they win	96%
Our projected spread (SMU Mustangs)	-29.2
Our projected score (SMU Mustangs first)	43-14
Projected total	56.2
Our picks at 95% to 100% confidence	30-1 (97%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (SMU Mustangs)	-30.5
Total	60

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 20, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Missouri State vs SMU?: SMU Mustangs won 34-24. Maiden picked SMU Mustangs at 96% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 95% to 100% have won 30 of 31 college football games, 97%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Missouri State vs SMU win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with SMU Mustangs hosting Missouri State Bears. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.