New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack — prediction and win probability
New Mexico Lobos, 77% to win. We project them by 12.2.
The numbers
| Our pick | New Mexico Lobos |
| Chance they win | 77% |
| Our projected spread (New Mexico Lobos) | -12.2 |
| Our projected score (New Mexico Lobos first) | 30-18 |
| Projected total | 47.8 |
| Our picks at 75% to 80% confidence | 29-7 (81%) |
That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.
We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.
Market average
| Spread (New Mexico Lobos) | -9.5 |
| Total | 38.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Still to come today
Prediction published Nov 1, 2026, 3:03 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win New Mexico vs Nevada?
- Maiden gives New Mexico Lobos a 77% chance to beat Nevada Wolf Pack. We post that number before kickoff and check it against the result afterwards, win or lose.
- What is the projected score for New Mexico vs Nevada?
- We project New Mexico Lobos 30, Nevada Wolf Pack 18. The score and spread are there for context; we're only judged on the chance to win.
- How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?
- Picks we've made between 75% to 80% have won 29 of 36 college football games, 81%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
- Where does the New Mexico vs Nevada win probability come from?
- We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Nevada Wolf Pack hosting New Mexico Lobos. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.