New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightNew Mexico Lobos 42, New Mexico State Aggies 18
Our pick landed: New Mexico Lobos won 42-18. We had them at 72%.
New Mexico Lobos, 72% to win. We project them by 9.6.
The numbers
| Our pick | New Mexico Lobos |
| Chance they win | 72% |
| Our projected spread (New Mexico Lobos) | -9.6 |
| Our projected score (New Mexico Lobos first) | 31-21 |
| Projected total | 52.5 |
| Our picks at 70% to 75% confidence | 38-16 (70%) |
That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.
We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.
Market average
| Spread (New Mexico Lobos) | -11.5 |
| Total | 47.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 20, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
Tomorrow's free picks, by email
One email each morning with the day's free picks, before the games start. Our free beginner's guide comes with it. Unsubscribe anytime.
Frequently asked questions
- Who won New Mexico vs New Mexico State?
- New Mexico Lobos won 42-18. Maiden picked New Mexico Lobos at 72% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?
- Picks we've made between 70% to 75% have won 38 of 54 college football games, 70%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
- Where does the New Mexico vs New Mexico State win probability come from?
- We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with New Mexico State Aggies hosting New Mexico Lobos. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.