Who won New Mexico vs San José State?

New Mexico Lobos won 21-16. Maiden picked New Mexico Lobos at 80% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 75% to 80% have won 29 of 36 college football games, 81%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the New Mexico vs San José State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with San José State Spartans hosting New Mexico Lobos. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

New Mexico Lobos at San José State Spartans — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

New Mexico Lobos 21, San José State Spartans 16

Our pick landed: New Mexico Lobos won 21-16. We had them at 80%.

New Mexico Lobos, 80% to win. We project them by 13.7.

The numbers

Our pick	New Mexico Lobos
Chance they win	80%
Our projected spread (New Mexico Lobos)	-13.7
Our projected score (New Mexico Lobos first)	32-18
Projected total	49.8
Our picks at 75% to 80% confidence	29-7 (81%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (New Mexico Lobos)	-14.5
Total	42.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Oct 25, 2026, 3:03 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won New Mexico vs San José State?: New Mexico Lobos won 21-16. Maiden picked New Mexico Lobos at 80% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 75% to 80% have won 29 of 36 college football games, 81%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the New Mexico vs San José State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with San José State Spartans hosting New Mexico Lobos. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.