New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightFlorida State Seminoles 34, New Mexico State Aggies 17
Our pick landed: Florida State Seminoles won 34-17. We had them at 94%.
Florida State Seminoles, 94% to win. We project them by 26.2.
The numbers
| Our pick | Florida State Seminoles |
| Chance they win | 94% |
| Our projected spread (Florida State Seminoles) | -26.2 |
| Our projected score (Florida State Seminoles first) | 39-13 |
| Projected total | 51.4 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Florida State Seminoles) | -31 |
| Total | 53 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Aug 22, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC · Updated Aug 26, 2026, 1:04 AM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won New Mexico State vs Florida State?
- Florida State Seminoles won 34-17. Maiden picked Florida State Seminoles at 94% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the New Mexico State vs Florida State win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Florida State Seminoles hosting New Mexico State Aggies. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.