Week 0, 2026 college football picks
Every game we have a call on this week — the side we pick to win and our probability. Games our model is not confident about are left off entirely rather than published as a coin flip.
7
games we call
7
settled so far
309-90
record, all season
77%
picks correct
Saturday, August 29
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs TCU Horned FrogsLost ✗
TCU Horned Frogs, 79% to win
Projected total 52.1
- San José State Spartans at USC TrojansWon ✓
USC Trojans, 97% to win
Projected total 58.5
- NC State Wolfpack at Virginia CavaliersWon ✓
Virginia Cavaliers, 61% to win
Projected total 53.3
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks at North Dakota State BisonWon ✓
North Dakota State Bison, 66% to win
Projected total 53.3
- Sacramento State Hornets at Eastern Michigan EaglesWon ✓
Eastern Michigan Eagles, 73% to win
Projected total 56.9
- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Stanford CardinalWon ✓
Stanford Cardinal, 57% to win
Projected total 51.2
- New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State SeminolesWon ✓
Florida State Seminoles, 94% to win
Projected total 51.4
Tomorrow's card, by email
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, across every sport we cover, published before play and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.
How to read this board
TCU Horned Frogs, 79% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 68% call that loses is a 68% call that lost, not a bad model.
One number per row, and it is the probability. We do project a margin for each game, and it is on the game page where there is room to label it — but it is context, not a call, and nobody is graded on it. No sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page, and neither does anyone else’s number.
A short board is the honest one. We publish only where our model clears its gates, so a week with a lot of close games has fewer picks on it — the games we leave out are the ones we would be guessing at.