Week 0, 2026 college football picks
Every game we have a call on this week — the side we pick to win and our probability. Games our model is not confident about are left off entirely rather than published as a coin flip.
7
games we call
7
settled so far
6-1
record, all season
86%
picks correct
Saturday, August 29
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs TCU Horned FrogsLost ✗
TCU Horned Frogs, 79% to win
Projected total 52.1
- San José State Spartans at USC TrojansWon ✓
USC Trojans, 97% to win
Projected total 58.5
- NC State Wolfpack at Virginia CavaliersWon ✓
Virginia Cavaliers, 61% to win
Projected total 53.3
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks at North Dakota State BisonWon ✓
North Dakota State Bison, 66% to win
Projected total 53.3
- Sacramento State Hornets at Eastern Michigan EaglesWon ✓
Eastern Michigan Eagles, 73% to win
Projected total 56.9
- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Stanford CardinalWon ✓
Stanford Cardinal, 57% to win
Projected total 51.2
- New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State SeminolesWon ✓
Florida State Seminoles, 94% to win
Projected total 51.4
How to read this board
TCU Horned Frogs, 79% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 68% call that loses is a 68% call that lost, not a bad model.
One number per row, and it is the probability. We do project a margin for each game, and it is on the game page where there is room to label it — but it is context, not a call, and nobody is graded on it. No sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page, and neither does anyone else’s number.
A short board is the honest one. We publish only where our model clears its gates, so a week with a lot of close games has fewer picks on it — the games we leave out are the ones we would be guessing at.