Who won Rice vs Fresno State?

Fresno State Bulldogs won 38-24. Maiden picked Fresno State Bulldogs at 85% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 80% to 85% have won 40 of 46 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Rice vs Fresno State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Fresno State Bulldogs hosting Rice Owls. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 4 · Sep 27, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC

Rice Owls at Fresno State Bulldogs — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Fresno State Bulldogs 38, Rice Owls 24

Our pick landed: Fresno State Bulldogs won 38-24. We had them at 85%.

Fresno State Bulldogs, 85% to win. We project them by 17.2.

The numbers

Our pick	Fresno State Bulldogs
Chance they win	85%
Our projected spread (Fresno State Bulldogs)	-17.2
Our projected score (Fresno State Bulldogs first)	30-13
Projected total	43.5
Our picks at 80% to 85% confidence	40-6 (87%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Fresno State Bulldogs)	-13
Total	43.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 20, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Rice vs Fresno State?: Fresno State Bulldogs won 38-24. Maiden picked Fresno State Bulldogs at 85% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 80% to 85% have won 40 of 46 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Rice vs Fresno State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Fresno State Bulldogs hosting Rice Owls. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.