Who won Sacramento State vs Ball State?

Ball State Cardinals won 34-17. Maiden picked Ball State Cardinals at 72% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 70% to 75% have won 38 of 54 college football games, 70%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Sacramento State vs Ball State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Ball State Cardinals hosting Sacramento State Hornets. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC

Sacramento State Hornets at Ball State Cardinals — result and pick review

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Result

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Ball State Cardinals 34, Sacramento State Hornets 17

Our pick landed: Ball State Cardinals won 34-17. We had them at 72%.

Ball State Cardinals, 72% to win. We project them by 9.9.

The numbers

Our pick	Ball State Cardinals
Chance they win	72%
Our projected spread (Ball State Cardinals)	-9.9
Our projected score (Ball State Cardinals first)	32-22
Projected total	54.7
Our picks at 70% to 75% confidence	38-16 (70%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Ball State Cardinals)	-14.5
Total	51

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Oct 18, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Sacramento State vs Ball State?: Ball State Cardinals won 34-17. Maiden picked Ball State Cardinals at 72% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 70% to 75% have won 38 of 54 college football games, 70%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Sacramento State vs Ball State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Ball State Cardinals hosting Sacramento State Hornets. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.