Who won Sacramento State vs Fresno State?

Fresno State Bulldogs won 49-3. Maiden picked Fresno State Bulldogs at 93% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 90% to 95% have won 31 of 33 college football games, 94%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Sacramento State vs Fresno State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Fresno State Bulldogs hosting Sacramento State Hornets. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 2 · Sep 13, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Fresno State Bulldogs 49, Sacramento State Hornets 3

Our pick landed: Fresno State Bulldogs won 49-3. We had them at 93%.

Fresno State Bulldogs, 93% to win. We project them by 24.9.

The numbers

Our pick	Fresno State Bulldogs
Chance they win	93%
Our projected spread (Fresno State Bulldogs)	-24.9
Our projected score (Fresno State Bulldogs first)	37-12
Projected total	49.4
Our picks at 90% to 95% confidence	31-2 (94%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Fresno State Bulldogs)	-18
Total	45

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Sacramento State vs Fresno State?: Fresno State Bulldogs won 49-3. Maiden picked Fresno State Bulldogs at 93% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 90% to 95% have won 31 of 33 college football games, 94%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Sacramento State vs Fresno State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Fresno State Bulldogs hosting Sacramento State Hornets. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.