Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightFresno State Bulldogs 49, Sacramento State Hornets 3
Our pick landed: Fresno State Bulldogs won 49-3. We had them at 93%.
Fresno State Bulldogs, 93% to win. We project them by 24.9.
The numbers
| Our pick | Fresno State Bulldogs |
| Chance they win | 93% |
| Our projected spread (Fresno State Bulldogs) | -24.9 |
| Our projected score (Fresno State Bulldogs first) | 37-12 |
| Projected total | 49.4 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Fresno State Bulldogs) | -18 |
| Total | 45 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won Sacramento State vs Fresno State?
- Fresno State Bulldogs won 49-3. Maiden picked Fresno State Bulldogs at 93% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Sacramento State vs Fresno State win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Fresno State Bulldogs hosting Sacramento State Hornets. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.