Who won Sam Houston vs Missouri State?

Missouri State Bears won 24-3. Maiden picked Missouri State Bears at 61% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 60% to 65% have won 41 of 62 college football games, 66%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Sam Houston vs Missouri State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Missouri State Bears hosting Sam Houston Bearkats. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 9 · Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

Sam Houston Bearkats at Missouri State Bears — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Missouri State Bears 24, Sam Houston Bearkats 3

Our pick landed: Missouri State Bears won 24-3. We had them at 61%.

Missouri State Bears, 61% to win. We project them by 4.5.

The numbers

Our pick	Missouri State Bears
Chance they win	61%
Our projected spread (Missouri State Bears)	-4.5
Our projected score (Missouri State Bears first)	29-25
Projected total	53.5
Our picks at 60% to 65% confidence	41-21 (66%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Missouri State Bears)	-6
Total	52

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Oct 25, 2026, 3:03 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Sam Houston vs Missouri State?: Missouri State Bears won 24-3. Maiden picked Missouri State Bears at 61% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 60% to 65% have won 41 of 62 college football games, 66%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Sam Houston vs Missouri State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Missouri State Bears hosting Sam Houston Bearkats. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.