Sam Houston Bearkats at Troy Trojans — prediction and win probability
Troy Trojans, 84% to win — we project them by 13.4.
Projected total 49.1
The numbers
| Our pick | Troy Trojans |
| Chance they win | 84% |
| Projected margin (Troy Trojans) | +13.4 |
| Projected total | 49.1 |
Only the win probability is graded. The projected margin and total are our own model’s supporting numbers — they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested, and no call is made on them. No sportsbook line appears on this page.
Rest of the Week 1, 2026 board
- North Carolina Tar Heels at TCU Horned FrogsTCU Horned Frogs, 79% to win
- San José State Spartans at USC TrojansUSC Trojans, 96% to win
- NC State Wolfpack at Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers, 62% to win
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks at North Dakota State BisonNorth Dakota State Bison, 70% to win
- Sacramento State Hornets at Eastern Michigan EaglesEastern Michigan Eagles, 64% to win
- New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State SeminolesFlorida State Seminoles, 91% to win
- Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsRutgers Scarlet Knights, 98% to win
- Akron Zips at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsWake Forest Demon Deacons, 88% to win
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets — every call is graded in public after the game, wins and misses both.