San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State Rams — result and pick review
Result
✗ Pick wrongSan Diego State Aztecs 49, Colorado State Rams 56
Our pick missed: San Diego State Aztecs lost 49-56. We had them at 58%, and it stays on the record.
San Diego State Aztecs, 58% to win. We project them by 3.3.
The numbers
| Our pick | San Diego State Aztecs |
| Chance they win | 58% |
| Our projected spread (San Diego State Aztecs) | -3.3 |
| Our projected score (San Diego State Aztecs first) | 31-28 |
| Projected total | 58.8 |
| Our picks at 55% to 60% confidence | 32-16 (67%) |
That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.
We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.
Market average
| Spread (San Diego State Aztecs) | -1 |
| Total | 59 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Oct 18, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won San Diego State vs Colorado State?
- Colorado State Rams won 56-49. Maiden picked San Diego State Aztecs at 58% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?
- Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
- Where does the San Diego State vs Colorado State win probability come from?
- We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Colorado State Rams hosting San Diego State Aztecs. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.