Who won San Diego State vs Toledo?

Toledo Rockets won 41-16. Maiden picked Toledo Rockets at 70% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 65% to 70% have won 35 of 51 college football games, 69%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the San Diego State vs Toledo win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Toledo Rockets hosting San Diego State Aztecs. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Toledo Rockets 41, San Diego State Aztecs 16

Our pick landed: Toledo Rockets won 41-16. We had them at 70%.

Toledo Rockets, 70% to win. We project them by 8.7.

The numbers

Our pick	Toledo Rockets
Chance they win	70%
Our projected spread (Toledo Rockets)	-8.7
Our projected score (Toledo Rockets first)	29-21
Projected total	49.9
Our picks at 65% to 70% confidence	35-16 (69%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Toledo Rockets)	-2.5
Total	51.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 20, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won San Diego State vs Toledo?: Toledo Rockets won 41-16. Maiden picked Toledo Rockets at 70% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 65% to 70% have won 35 of 51 college football games, 69%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the San Diego State vs Toledo win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Toledo Rockets hosting San Diego State Aztecs. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.