Who won SMU vs Florida State?

SMU Mustangs won 27-24. Maiden picked SMU Mustangs at 58% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the SMU vs Florida State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Florida State Seminoles hosting SMU Mustangs. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 1 · Sep 7, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC

SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

SMU Mustangs 27, Florida State Seminoles 24

Our pick landed: SMU Mustangs won 27-24. We had them at 58%.

SMU Mustangs, 58% to win. We project them by 3.2.

The numbers

Our pick	SMU Mustangs
Chance they win	58%
Our projected spread (SMU Mustangs)	-3.2
Our projected score (SMU Mustangs first)	28-25
Projected total	53.3
Our picks at 55% to 60% confidence	32-16 (67%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (SMU Mustangs)	-3
Total	53

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Aug 22, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won SMU vs Florida State?: SMU Mustangs won 27-24. Maiden picked SMU Mustangs at 58% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the SMU vs Florida State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Florida State Seminoles hosting SMU Mustangs. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.