South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightTulane Green Wave 28, South Alabama Jaguars 24
Our pick landed: Tulane Green Wave won 28-24. We had them at 78%.
Tulane Green Wave, 78% to win. We project them by 13.
The numbers
| Our pick | Tulane Green Wave |
| Chance they win | 78% |
| Our projected spread (Tulane Green Wave) | -13 |
| Our projected score (Tulane Green Wave first) | 31-18 |
| Projected total | 49.9 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Tulane Green Wave) | -9.5 |
| Total | 49.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won South Alabama vs Tulane?
- Tulane Green Wave won 28-24. Maiden picked Tulane Green Wave at 78% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the South Alabama vs Tulane win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Tulane Green Wave hosting South Alabama Jaguars. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.