Who won Texas State vs Boise State?

Boise State Broncos won 46-45. Maiden picked Boise State Broncos at 78% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 75% to 80% have won 29 of 36 college football games, 81%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Texas State vs Boise State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Boise State Broncos hosting Texas State Bobcats. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 9 · Nov 1, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC

Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Boise State Broncos 46, Texas State Bobcats 45

Our pick landed: Boise State Broncos won 46-45. We had them at 78%.

Boise State Broncos, 78% to win. We project them by 12.5.

The numbers

Our pick	Boise State Broncos
Chance they win	78%
Our projected spread (Boise State Broncos)	-12.5
Our projected score (Boise State Broncos first)	37-25
Projected total	62.2
Our picks at 75% to 80% confidence	29-7 (81%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Boise State Broncos)	-10.5
Total	63.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Oct 25, 2026, 3:03 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Texas State vs Boise State?: Boise State Broncos won 46-45. Maiden picked Boise State Broncos at 78% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 75% to 80% have won 29 of 36 college football games, 81%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Texas State vs Boise State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Boise State Broncos hosting Texas State Bobcats. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.