Toledo Rockets at Sacramento State Hornets — prediction and win probability
The numbers
| Projected total | 55.2 |
| Our picks at 90% to 95% confidence | 31-2 (94%) |
That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.
The projected total is our model’s number, not a market’s. We grade the win probability, and it opens to everyone the moment this game is played.
Market average
| Spread (Toledo Rockets) | -25.5 |
| Total | 53 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Still to come today
Prediction published Nov 1, 2026, 3:03 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- What is the projected total for Toledo vs Sacramento State?
- Our model projects 55.2 combined points. Maiden grades the win probability, not the total, and that win probability opens to everyone the moment this game is played.
- How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?
- Picks we've made between 90% to 95% have won 31 of 33 college football games, 94%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
- Where does the Toledo vs Sacramento State win probability come from?
- We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Sacramento State Hornets hosting Toledo Rockets. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.