Who won UL Monroe vs Troy?

UL Monroe Warhawks won 21-14. Maiden picked Troy Trojans at 87% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 85% to 90% have won 33 of 38 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the UL Monroe vs Troy win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Troy Trojans hosting UL Monroe Warhawks. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

UL Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans — result and pick review

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Result

✗ Pick wrong

Troy Trojans 14, UL Monroe Warhawks 21

Our pick missed: Troy Trojans lost 14-21. We had them at 87%, and it stays on the record.

Troy Trojans, 87% to win. We project them by 18.6.

The numbers

Our pick	Troy Trojans
Chance they win	87%
Our projected spread (Troy Trojans)	-18.6
Our projected score (Troy Trojans first)	34-15
Projected total	49.3
Our picks at 85% to 90% confidence	33-5 (87%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Troy Trojans)	-13
Total	51

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Oct 18, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won UL Monroe vs Troy?: UL Monroe Warhawks won 21-14. Maiden picked Troy Trojans at 87% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 85% to 90% have won 33 of 38 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the UL Monroe vs Troy win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Troy Trojans hosting UL Monroe Warhawks. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.