UNLV Rebels at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightUNLV Rebels 21, Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 6
Our pick landed: UNLV Rebels won 21-6. We had them at 59%.
UNLV Rebels, 59% to win. We project them by 3.6.
The numbers
| Our pick | UNLV Rebels |
| Chance they win | 59% |
| Our projected spread (UNLV Rebels) | -3.6 |
| Our projected score (UNLV Rebels first) | 31-27 |
| Projected total | 57.7 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (UNLV Rebels) | -3 |
| Total | 55.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Aug 22, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won UNLV vs Hawai'i?
- UNLV Rebels won 21-6. Maiden picked UNLV Rebels at 59% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the UNLV vs Hawai'i win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors hosting UNLV Rebels. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.