UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats — result and pick review
Result
✗ Pick wrongTexas State Bobcats 26, UTSA Roadrunners 31
Our pick missed: Texas State Bobcats lost 26-31. We had them at 55%, and it stays on the record.
Texas State Bobcats, 55% to win. We project them by 2.1.
The numbers
| Our pick | Texas State Bobcats |
| Chance they win | 55% |
| Our projected spread (Texas State Bobcats) | -2.1 |
| Our projected score (Texas State Bobcats first) | 33-31 |
| Projected total | 64.7 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Texas State Bobcats) | -1.5 |
| Total | 66 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 5, 2026, 11:13 AM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won UTSA vs Texas State?
- UTSA Roadrunners won 31-26. Maiden picked Texas State Bobcats at 55% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the UTSA vs Texas State win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Texas State Bobcats hosting UTSA Roadrunners. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.