Who won UTSA vs Texas State?

UTSA Roadrunners won 31-26. Maiden picked Texas State Bobcats at 55% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the UTSA vs Texas State win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Texas State Bobcats hosting UTSA Roadrunners. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats — result and pick review

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Result

✗ Pick wrong

Texas State Bobcats 26, UTSA Roadrunners 31

Our pick missed: Texas State Bobcats lost 26-31. We had them at 55%, and it stays on the record.

Texas State Bobcats, 55% to win. We project them by 2.1.

The numbers

Our pick	Texas State Bobcats
Chance they win	55%
Our projected spread (Texas State Bobcats)	-2.1
Our projected score (Texas State Bobcats first)	33-31
Projected total	64.7
Our picks at 55% to 60% confidence	32-16 (67%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Texas State Bobcats)	-1.5
Total	66

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 5, 2026, 11:13 AM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won UTSA vs Texas State?: UTSA Roadrunners won 31-26. Maiden picked Texas State Bobcats at 55% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 55% to 60% have won 32 of 48 college football games, 67%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the UTSA vs Texas State win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Texas State Bobcats hosting UTSA Roadrunners. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.