Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack — result and pick review
Result
✗ Pick wrongWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers 14, Nevada Wolf Pack 49
Our pick missed: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers lost 14-49. We had them at 63%, and it stays on the record.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 63% to win. We project them by 5.5.
The numbers
| Our pick | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
| Chance they win | 63% |
| Our projected spread (Western Kentucky Hilltoppers) | -5.5 |
| Our projected score (Western Kentucky Hilltoppers first) | 27-22 |
| Projected total | 49.4 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Western Kentucky Hilltoppers) | -0.5 |
| Total | 51.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Aug 22, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won Western Kentucky vs Nevada?
- Nevada Wolf Pack won 49-14. Maiden picked Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at 63% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Western Kentucky vs Nevada win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Nevada Wolf Pack hosting Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.