Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan Wolverines — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightMichigan Wolverines 13, Western Michigan Broncos 12
Our pick landed: Michigan Wolverines won 13-12. We had them at 89%.
Michigan Wolverines, 89% to win. We project them by 20.3.
The numbers
| Our pick | Michigan Wolverines |
| Chance they win | 89% |
| Our projected spread (Michigan Wolverines) | -20.3 |
| Our projected score (Michigan Wolverines first) | 34-13 |
| Projected total | 46.9 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Michigan Wolverines) | -27.5 |
| Total | 49.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Aug 22, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, football included, published before anything starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Frequently asked questions
- Who won Western Michigan vs Michigan?
- Michigan Wolverines won 13-12. Maiden picked Michigan Wolverines at 89% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Western Michigan vs Michigan win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Michigan Wolverines hosting Western Michigan Broncos. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.