Wyoming Cowboys at San José State Spartans — prediction and win probability
San José State Spartans, 66% to win. We project them by 6.9.
The numbers
| Our pick | San José State Spartans |
| Chance they win | 66% |
| Our projected spread (San José State Spartans) | -6.9 |
| Our projected score (San José State Spartans first) | 24-17 |
| Projected total | 41.4 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (San José State Spartans) | -4 |
| Total | 43 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Still to come today
Prediction published Oct 4, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
Open this game's sheet
One printable page of what our number becomes at every score: level at the half, up ten, down four. Yours for this game while it is being played, plus the day's picks each morning. Unsubscribe anytime.
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Wyoming vs San José State Spartans?
- Maiden gives San José State Spartans a 66% chance to beat Wyoming Cowboys. That is our model's straight-up win probability, published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards, whichever way it goes.
- What is the projected score for Wyoming vs San José State Spartans?
- Our model projects San José State Spartans 24, Wyoming Cowboys 17. The projected score and spread are supporting context only: the win probability is the published call, and it is the only number we are graded on.
- Where does the Wyoming vs San José State Spartans win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with San José State Spartans hosting Wyoming Cowboys. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.