Maiden.bet

NFL Fantasy Football Rankings & Projections — Week 6, 2026

Weekly projections for every startable quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end, in standard, half-PPR and full-PPR scoring — the full board, open, and graded against actual points the week after it publishes.

Share the board

Every ranking on this page is free and graded in public.What Maiden Pro adds ($10/mo) →

191 of 191 players

Quarterbacks, Week 6, 2026 (39 players)

Quarterbacks fantasy projections for Week 6, 2026, ranked by projected points, identical in all three scoring formats.
RkPlayerGamePtsRangeActual
1Josh AllenBillsat Raiders23.513.2–34.618.3
1Brock Purdy49ersvs Commanders20.010.1–30.517.4
2Matthew StaffordRamsvs Cardinals21.411.4–32.216.9
2Jayden DanielsCommandersat 49ers15.96.6–25.921.0
4Dak PrescottCowboysat Packers19.09.3–29.411.0
5Drake MayePatriotsvs Jets17.88.2–28.123.8
6Jordan LovePackersvs Cowboys17.68.0–27.820.2
7Caleb WilliamsBearsQuestionableat Falcons17.07.6–27.216.5
8Tyler ShoughSaintsat Giants16.26.8–26.227.0
9Kirk CousinsRaidersvs Bills16.16.7–26.218.5
10Patrick MahomesChiefsvs Chargers16.16.7–26.110.5
12Jacoby BrissettCardinalsat Rams15.76.4–25.76.9
13Jameis WinstonGiantsvs Saints15.36.1–25.36.5
14Bryce YoungPanthersat Eagles15.05.8–24.919.8
16Daniel JonesColtsvs Titans14.95.7–24.813.8
17Deshaun WatsonBrownsvs Ravens14.75.5–24.69.5
18C.J. StroudTexansat Jaguars14.65.4–24.523.0
19Michael Penix Jr.Falconsvs Bears13.84.7–23.623.1
20Trevor LawrenceJaguarsvs Texans13.84.7–23.527.3
21Aaron RodgersSteelersat Buccaneers13.44.4–23.116.0
24Geno SmithJetsat Patriots12.03.1–21.512.0
25Bo NixBroncosvs Seahawks12.53.6–22.14.5
25Justin HerbertChargersat Chiefs11.83.0–21.38.8
26Cam WardTitansat Colts11.72.9–21.26.8
33Sam DarnoldSeahawksat Broncos10.72.0–20.011.0
—Mac Jones49ersBackupvs Commanders———
—Justin FieldsChiefsBackupvs Chargers———
—Spencer RattlerSaintsBackupat Giants——0.0
—Jaxson DartGiantsBackupvs Saints———
—Quinn EwersJaguarsBackupvs Texans———
—Davis MillsTexansBackupat Jaguars———
—Tyrod TaylorPackersBackupvs Cowboys———
—Tua TagovailoaFalconsBackupvs Bears———
—J.J. McCarthyGiantsBackupvs Saints——16.3
—Shedeur SandersBrownsBackupvs Ravens———
—Lamar JacksonRavensOutat Browns———
—Baker MayfieldBuccaneersOutvs Steelers———
—Jalen HurtsEaglesOutvs Panthers———
—Marcus MariotaCommandersOutat 49ers———
Each call, in one sentence(24)
  • Our projection has Josh Allen at 23.5 half-PPR points at the Raiders in Week 6, 2026, our QB1.
  • Our projection has Brock Purdy at 20.0 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 6, 2026, our QB1.
  • Our projection has Matthew Stafford at 21.4 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 6, 2026, our QB2.
  • Our projection has Jayden Daniels at 15.9 half-PPR points at the 49ers in Week 6, 2026, our QB2.
  • Our projection has Dak Prescott at 19.0 half-PPR points at the Packers in Week 6, 2026, our QB4.
  • Our projection has Drake Maye at 17.8 half-PPR points against the Jets in Week 6, 2026, our QB5.
  • Our projection has Jordan Love at 17.6 half-PPR points against the Cowboys in Week 6, 2026, our QB6.
  • Our projection has Caleb Williams at 17.0 half-PPR points at the Falcons in Week 6, 2026, our QB7 (listed questionable, and the number assumes he plays).
  • Our projection has Tyler Shough at 16.2 half-PPR points at the Giants in Week 6, 2026, our QB8.
  • Our projection has Kirk Cousins at 16.1 half-PPR points against the Bills in Week 6, 2026, our QB9.
  • Mac Jones is listed as a backup for the 49ers in Week 6, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Justin Fields is listed as a backup for the Chiefs in Week 6, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Spencer Rattler is listed as a backup for the Saints in Week 6, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Jaxson Dart is listed as a backup for the Giants in Week 6, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Quinn Ewers is listed as a backup for the Jaguars in Week 6, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Davis Mills is listed as a backup for the Texans in Week 6, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Tyrod Taylor is listed as a backup for the Packers in Week 6, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is listed as a backup for the Falcons in Week 6, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • J.J. McCarthy is listed as a backup for the Giants in Week 6, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Shedeur Sanders is listed as a backup for the Browns in Week 6, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
  • Lamar Jackson is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 at the Browns. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Baker Mayfield is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 against the Steelers. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Jalen Hurts is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 against the Panthers. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Marcus Mariota is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 at the 49ers. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Running Backs, Week 6, 2026 (54 players)

Running Backs fantasy projections for Week 6, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
RkPlayerGameStdHalf-PPRPPRRangeActual
1Kyren WilliamsRamsvs Cardinals17.920.122.410.1–33.48.2
1Christian McCaffrey49ersvs Commanders13.715.717.76.8–27.526.2
2Kenneth Walker IIIChiefsvs Chargers18.720.121.510.1–33.426.9
2Rachaad WhiteCommandersat 49ers5.46.57.60.0–15.213.7
3Bijan RobinsonFalconsvs Bears17.719.521.39.6–32.56.3
4Jonathan TaylorColtsvs Titans17.218.619.98.9–31.320.1
5Derrick HenryRavensat Browns16.717.418.18.0–29.74.5
6James CookBillsat Raiders16.617.418.28.0–29.722.8
8Jaylen WarrenSteelersat Buccaneers14.816.618.37.4–28.68.8
9Chuba HubbardPanthersat Eagles14.215.316.46.4–26.918.6
10Javonte WilliamsCowboysat Packers13.514.916.46.2–26.512.0
11Ashton JeantyRaidersvs Bills12.114.116.25.6–25.413.8
12D'Andre SwiftBearsat Falcons12.013.314.65.0–24.321.0
13Bucky IrvingBuccaneersvs Steelers11.512.814.14.6–23.65.9
14Bhayshul TutenJaguarsvs Texans11.512.313.14.2–22.922.7
15Cam SkatteboGiantsvs Saints11.212.313.34.2–22.90.0
16Rhamondre StevensonPatriotsvs Jets10.712.013.44.1–22.63.6
17Braelon AllenJetsat Patriots11.111.912.73.9–22.411.4
18Josh JacobsPackersvs Cowboys10.411.612.73.7–21.9DNP
19Emanuel WilsonSeahawksat Broncos10.911.512.13.6–21.85.2
19Quinshon JudkinsBrownsQuestionablevs Ravens9.611.112.63.3–21.3DNP
20Travis EtienneSaintsat Giants8.19.410.82.1–19.1DNP
21Tony PollardTitansat Colts8.59.410.32.1–19.17.6
22Trey BensonCardinalsat Rams7.69.010.41.8–18.5DNP
23Woody MarksTexansat Jaguars8.09.010.01.8–18.59.1
24Jawhar JordanTexansat Jaguars8.08.99.71.7–18.311.5
25J.K. DobbinsBroncosvs Seahawks8.38.99.51.7–18.312.1
25Rico DowdleSteelersQuestionableat Buccaneers6.88.19.31.1–17.26.4
26Audric EstiméBrownsvs Ravens6.98.09.01.0–17.17.9
27Michael CarterTitansat Colts6.57.78.90.8–16.7DNP
28MarShawn LloydPackersvs Cowboys6.57.68.70.8–16.61.0
29Omarion HamptonChargersat Chiefs6.67.48.10.6–16.35.9
31Alvin KamaraSaintsQuestionableat Giants4.96.37.80.0–15.013.9
32TreVeyon HendersonPatriotsQuestionablevs Jets5.66.26.70.0–14.72.5
33Tyler AllgeierCardinalsat Rams4.95.86.70.0–14.25.3
34Brian RobinsonFalconsvs Bears5.25.66.00.0–13.92.0
35Blake CorumRamsvs Cardinals4.55.36.10.0–13.513.0
36RJ HarveyBroncosvs Seahawks4.76.68.40.0–15.213.1
36Keaton MitchellChargersat Chiefs4.15.26.30.0–13.40.4
37Devin SingletaryGiantsvs Saints4.14.95.70.0–13.13.8
38Tank BigsbyEaglesvs Panthers4.54.95.40.0–13.1DNP
39Kenny GainwellBuccaneersvs Steelers3.34.66.00.0–12.72.9
40Tyjae SpearsTitansQuestionableat Colts3.14.55.90.0–12.51.3
41Kimani VidalChargersat Chiefs3.34.04.80.0–11.95.5
42Kendre MillerSaintsat Giants3.54.04.60.0–11.88.0
43Chris Rodriguez Jr.Jaguarsvs Texans1.51.82.00.0–8.85.5
48Kaelon Black49ersvs Commanders3.53.94.40.0–11.74.2
—Zach CharbonnetSeahawksOutat Broncos—————
—Saquon BarkleyEaglesOutvs Panthers—————
—David MontgomeryTexansOutat Jaguars—————
—Breece HallJetsOutat Patriots—————
—Kyle MonangaiBearsOutat Falcons—————
—Jeremiyah LoveCardinalsOutat Rams—————
—Jacory Croskey-MerrittCommandersOutat 49ers—————
Each call, in one sentence(17)
  • Our projection has Kyren Williams at 20.1 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 6, 2026, our RB1.
  • Our projection has Christian McCaffrey at 15.7 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 6, 2026, our RB1.
  • Our projection has Kenneth Walker III at 20.1 half-PPR points against the Chargers in Week 6, 2026, our RB2.
  • Our projection has Rachaad White at 6.5 half-PPR points at the 49ers in Week 6, 2026, our RB2.
  • Our projection has Bijan Robinson at 19.5 half-PPR points against the Bears in Week 6, 2026, our RB3.
  • Our projection has Jonathan Taylor at 18.6 half-PPR points against the Titans in Week 6, 2026, our RB4.
  • Our projection has Derrick Henry at 17.4 half-PPR points at the Browns in Week 6, 2026, our RB5.
  • Our projection has James Cook at 17.4 half-PPR points at the Raiders in Week 6, 2026, our RB6.
  • Our projection has Jaylen Warren at 16.6 half-PPR points at the Buccaneers in Week 6, 2026, our RB8.
  • Our projection has Chuba Hubbard at 15.3 half-PPR points at the Eagles in Week 6, 2026, our RB9.
  • Zach Charbonnet is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 at the Broncos. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Saquon Barkley is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 against the Panthers. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • David Montgomery is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 at the Jaguars. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Breece Hall is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 at the Patriots. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Kyle Monangai is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 at the Falcons. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Jeremiyah Love is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 at the Rams. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 at the 49ers. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Wide Receivers, Week 6, 2026 (65 players)

Wide Receivers fantasy projections for Week 6, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
RkPlayerGameStdHalf-PPRPPRRangeActual
1Puka NacuaRamsvs Cardinals18.823.528.212.4–38.511.0
1Mike Evans49ersQuestionablevs Commanders9.611.914.14.0–22.510.9
2CeeDee LambCowboysat Packers12.315.719.16.8–27.811.5
2Stefon DiggsCommandersQuestionableat 49ers7.910.412.93.0–20.513.4
3Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeahawksat Broncos12.215.618.96.7–27.619.4
3Chris OlaveSaintsQuestionableat Giants11.514.818.16.1–26.512.3
3Ricky Pearsall49ersvs Commanders7.79.711.82.5–19.5DNP
4Davante AdamsRamsvs Cardinals11.914.717.46.0–26.35.4
4Terry McLaurinCommandersat 49ers6.98.910.91.9–18.43.2
5George PickensCowboysat Packers10.913.516.15.2–24.710.3
6Malik NabersGiantsvs Saints10.313.216.25.0–24.422.5
7Tetairoa McMillanPanthersat Eagles10.313.116.04.9–24.211.6
8Drake LondonFalconsvs Bears10.212.815.34.7–23.710.2
9Christian WatsonPackersvs Cowboys10.512.815.04.7–23.77.9
10Michael WilsonCardinalsat Rams9.712.615.64.6–23.55.2
11Matthew GoldenPackersvs Cowboys9.611.914.24.0–22.519.4
12Zay FlowersRavensat Browns8.811.514.33.8–22.09.7
13Garrett WilsonJetsat Patriots8.911.514.23.8–22.06.4
15DeVonta SmithEaglesvs Panthers8.211.013.83.4–21.317.0
16Devaughn VeleSaintsat Giants7.910.212.52.8–20.25.7
17Parker WashingtonJaguarsvs Texans8.010.112.32.8–20.18.4
18Rome OdunzeBearsat Falcons8.210.011.82.7–19.95.4
19DK MetcalfSteelersat Buccaneers7.79.811.92.5–19.614.8
20Nico CollinsTexansat Jaguars7.29.812.32.5–19.69.4
22Luther Burden IIIBearsat Falcons7.29.411.72.3–19.113.5
23Denzel BostonBrownsvs Ravens7.59.411.22.2–19.02.0
24Carnell TateTitansat Colts6.99.211.62.1–18.916.0
25Josh DownsColtsvs Titans6.99.011.22.0–18.66.7
26Emeka EgbukaBuccaneersvs Steelers6.98.910.81.9–18.314.3
27Keenan AllenColtsvs Titans6.28.711.11.7–18.112.2
29Khalil ShakirBillsat Raiders6.48.410.31.5–17.611.4
31Tre TuckerRaidersvs Bills6.28.09.71.2–17.124.2
32A.J. BrownPatriotsQuestionablevs Jets5.97.99.91.2–17.04.2
33Wan'Dale RobinsonTitansat Colts5.67.810.11.1–16.93.7
34Jaylen WaddleBroncosvs Seahawks5.87.99.91.1–16.94.4
34Dontayvion WicksEaglesvs Panthers5.87.59.20.9–16.43.4
35Ryan FlournoyCowboysat Packers5.47.28.90.6–16.013.5
36Romeo DoubsPatriotsvs Jets5.57.08.60.5–15.810.7
37Xavier WorthyChiefsvs Chargers5.37.08.70.5–15.710.8
38Jakobi MeyersJaguarsvs Texans5.26.88.40.4–15.510.8
39Chris Godwin Jr.Buccaneersvs Steelers5.06.88.50.4–15.55.7
40Kalif RaymondBearsat Falcons5.67.59.40.9–16.42.8
40DJ MooreBillsQuestionableat Raiders4.76.37.90.0–14.8DNP
41Germie BernardSteelersat Buccaneers4.36.07.80.0–14.420.2
42Kendrick BourneCardinalsat Rams4.16.07.90.0–14.47.2
43Mack HollinsPatriotsvs Jets4.25.97.60.0–14.3DNP
44Courtland SuttonBroncosvs Seahawks5.06.58.10.2–15.12.9
44KC ConcepcionBrownsvs Ravens3.85.67.50.0–13.95.9
45Quentin JohnstonChargersat Chiefs4.15.67.00.0–13.86.2
46Alec PierceColtsvs Titans4.05.36.60.0–13.5DNP
47Rashod BatemanRavensat Browns3.85.26.60.0–13.30.0
48Michael PittmanSteelersat Buccaneers3.55.26.90.0–13.3DNP
49Tre HarrisChargersat Chiefs4.66.27.80.0–14.6DNP
49Ladd McConkeyChargersat Chiefs3.65.26.80.0–13.32.2
50Xavier HutchinsonTexansat Jaguars3.04.66.30.0–12.52.0
51Marvin Harrison Jr.Texansat Jaguars3.34.55.60.0–12.34.9
52Brian Thomas Jr.Jaguarsvs Texans3.14.35.60.0–12.10.0
53Roman WilsonSteelersat Buccaneers3.85.57.20.0–13.7DNP
53Jerry JeudyBrownsvs Ravens2.74.15.40.0–11.88.9
54Elic AyomanorTitansat Colts2.23.13.90.0–10.30.8
55Calvin RidleyTitansat Colts1.42.33.30.0–9.30.0
57Rashid ShaheedSeahawksat Broncos3.24.55.80.0–12.39.3
62Troy FranklinBroncosvs Seahawks1.01.92.80.0–8.80.7
—Rashee RiceChiefsOutvs Chargers—————
—Deebo Samuel Sr.49ersOutvs Commanders—————
Each call, in one sentence(12)
  • Our projection has Puka Nacua at 23.5 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 6, 2026, our WR1.
  • Our projection has Mike Evans at 11.9 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 6, 2026, our WR1 (listed questionable, and the number assumes he plays).
  • Our projection has CeeDee Lamb at 15.7 half-PPR points at the Packers in Week 6, 2026, our WR2.
  • Our projection has Stefon Diggs at 10.4 half-PPR points at the 49ers in Week 6, 2026, our WR2 (listed questionable, and the number assumes he plays).
  • Our projection has Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 15.6 half-PPR points at the Broncos in Week 6, 2026, our WR3.
  • Our projection has Chris Olave at 14.8 half-PPR points at the Giants in Week 6, 2026, our WR3 (listed questionable, and the number assumes he plays).
  • Our projection has Ricky Pearsall at 9.7 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 6, 2026, our WR3.
  • Our projection has Davante Adams at 14.7 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 6, 2026, our WR4.
  • Our projection has Terry McLaurin at 8.9 half-PPR points at the 49ers in Week 6, 2026, our WR4.
  • Our projection has George Pickens at 13.5 half-PPR points at the Packers in Week 6, 2026, our WR5.
  • Rashee Rice is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 against the Chargers. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
  • Deebo Samuel Sr. is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 against the Commanders. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Tight Ends, Week 6, 2026 (33 players)

Tight Ends fantasy projections for Week 6, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
RkPlayerGameStdHalf-PPRPPRRangeActual
1Trey McBrideCardinalsat Rams9.813.517.35.4–24.68.8
1George Kittle49ersvs Commanders8.110.212.33.4–19.615.4
2Brock BowersRaidersvs Bills9.612.916.25.0–23.79.0
2Jake Tonges49ersvs Commanders5.47.29.01.5–14.9DNP
3Isaiah LikelyGiantsvs Saints9.812.715.64.9–23.420.9
3Chig OkonkwoCommandersat 49ers4.15.87.40.7–12.710.4
5Tyler WarrenColtsQuestionablevs Titans7.810.312.83.5–19.7DNP
6Tucker KraftPackersvs Cowboys7.19.111.12.7–17.86.2
7Travis KelceChiefsvs Chargers6.88.710.72.5–17.37.3
8Tyler HigbeeRamsvs Cardinals6.38.410.52.3–16.72.2
9Mark AndrewsRavensat Browns6.48.410.42.2–16.70.9
10Juwan JohnsonSaintsat Giants6.18.310.52.2–16.60.0
11Brenton StrangeJaguarsvs Texans5.77.79.61.8–15.76.9
12Harold Fannin Jr.Brownsvs Ravens5.57.49.31.7–15.21.4
14Colston LovelandBearsat Falcons5.36.98.61.4–14.615.5
15Cade OttonBuccaneersvs Steelers4.96.88.61.3–14.30.9
16Pat FreiermuthSteelersQuestionableat Buccaneers4.86.78.51.2–14.12.1
17Jake FergusonCowboysat Packers4.66.38.01.0–13.62.3
18Michael MayerRaidersvs Bills4.56.38.01.0–13.513.0
19Dalton KincaidBillsat Raiders4.66.17.60.9–13.37.3
20Dalton SchultzTexansat Jaguars4.06.18.20.9–13.35.3
21AJ BarnerSeahawksat Broncos4.76.27.70.9–13.43.1
21Darren WallerPanthersat Eagles3.85.57.20.5–12.40.0
23Dallas GoedertEaglesvs Panthers3.45.47.30.4–12.19.1
24Hunter HenryPatriotsvs Jets3.95.46.80.4–12.112.8
25David NjokuChargersat Chiefs3.04.56.00.0–10.8DNP
26Kyle PittsFalconsvs Bears3.24.55.80.0–10.820.5
27Kenyon SadiqJetsQuestionableat Patriots2.33.85.40.0–9.81.7
28Oronde Gadsden IIChargersat Chiefs2.03.34.60.0–9.03.2
29Evan EngramBroncosvs Seahawks2.33.65.00.0–9.52.3
29Mason TaylorJetsat Patriots1.83.34.70.0–9.05.3
30Colby ParkinsonRamsvs Cardinals1.52.53.40.0–7.711.6
—Theo JohnsonGiantsOutvs Saints—————
Each call, in one sentence(11)
  • Our projection has Trey McBride at 13.5 half-PPR points at the Rams in Week 6, 2026, our TE1.
  • Our projection has George Kittle at 10.2 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 6, 2026, our TE1.
  • Our projection has Brock Bowers at 12.9 half-PPR points against the Bills in Week 6, 2026, our TE2.
  • Our projection has Jake Tonges at 7.2 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 6, 2026, our TE2.
  • Our projection has Isaiah Likely at 12.7 half-PPR points against the Saints in Week 6, 2026, our TE3.
  • Our projection has Chig Okonkwo at 5.8 half-PPR points at the 49ers in Week 6, 2026, our TE3.
  • Our projection has Tyler Warren at 10.3 half-PPR points against the Titans in Week 6, 2026, our TE5 (listed questionable, and the number assumes he plays).
  • Our projection has Tucker Kraft at 9.1 half-PPR points against the Cowboys in Week 6, 2026, our TE6.
  • Our projection has Travis Kelce at 8.7 half-PPR points against the Chargers in Week 6, 2026, our TE7.
  • Our projection has Tyler Higbee at 8.4 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 6, 2026, our TE8.
  • Theo Johnson is ruled out for Week 6, 2026 against the Saints. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Start or sit: compare two players

Pick the two you are torn between. The gap is our projection’s, and the rows underneath are the components that produce it. Free, like every number on this board.

Our projection has Josh Allen ahead by 3.5 Half-PPR points, 23.5 to 20.

Josh Allen compared with Brock Purdy, Half-PPR scoring.
 Josh AllenBrock PurdyGap
Projected Half-PPR23.5203.5
Range (floor–ceiling)13.2–34.610.1–30.5—
Positional rankQB1QB1—
This weekat Raidersvs Commanders—
Pass yards232.9280.4-47.5
Rush yards45.92322.9
Carries7.54.92.6
Rush TDs0.90.40.5
Pass TDs1.61.7-0.1
Interceptions0.70.70

Components are the projection’s own expected stat line, not last week’s box score. Both numbers assume the player takes the field: the model does not forecast whether he is active, which is why the injury row is there and why a player ruled out carries a status instead of a number.

Tomorrow's card, by email

One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, across every sport we cover, published before play and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.

How these projections work

Projections are our own model's output: recent role and usage, shrunk efficiency rates, and the game's scoring environment. The range beside each number is modeled, not a fixed band: the 10th to 90th percentile of that player's outcomes for the week, fit from how projections like his have actually landed. Every projection is graded against actual fantasy points the week after it publishes. Every number is conditional on the player playing: a player ruled out carries his status instead of a projection, and a player who takes no offensive snap is excluded from the record rather than counted as a zero. One snap is enough to be graded — a player who was on the field is scored on what he actually did, including nothing at all. Nothing here is betting advice.

Kickers and team defenses are not on the board yet — the model projects the four positions where snaps and usage separate startable players. Team defenses are planned to join around Week 4, kickers later in the season, and both appear here first when they do.