Every game on this week’s slate — the side we pick to win and our probability. There is always a pick side, so a coin-flip game shows up here as exactly that: a number just past 50%. Kickoffs run Thursday, September 24 through Monday, September 28.
14
games on the board
14
settled so far
64-34
record, all season
65%
picks correct
Thursday, September 24
Sunday, September 27
- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersLost ✗
Cincinnati Bengals, 52% to win
Projected total 45.9
- Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsWon ✓
New York Giants, 66% to win
Projected total 44.7
- Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsWon ✓
Kansas City Chiefs, 69% to win
Projected total 44.6
- New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsWon ✓
Jacksonville Jaguars, 53% to win
Projected total 42.6
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsLost ✗
Houston Texans, 56% to win
Projected total 47.7
- New York Jets at Detroit LionsWon ✓
Detroit Lions, 80% to win
Projected total 50.3
- Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsLost ✗
Carolina Panthers, 54% to win
Projected total 45
- Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsWon ✓
Buffalo Bills, 82% to win
Projected total 48.1
- Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersQB change
We pulled our call when the starting quarterback changed.
- Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersWon ✓
Minnesota Vikings, 62% to win
Projected total 42.5
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersWon ✓
San Francisco 49ers, 79% to win
Projected total 46.4
- Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsLost ✗
New Orleans Saints, 63% to win
Projected total 42.5
- Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas CowboysWon ✓
Baltimore Ravens, 66% to win
Projected total 51.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosLost ✗
Los Angeles Rams, 56% to win
Projected total 44.3
Monday, September 28
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Green Bay Packers, 70% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 63% call that loses is a 63% call that lost, not a bad model.
Every game on the slate gets a call. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% — and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table our model was validated on. One number per row, and it is the probability: a signed spread sitting beside it read as an against-the-spread call, which is not what this desk publishes. We do project a margin, it is on the game page where there is room to label it, and no sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page.
NFL games can end in a tie — one or two a season do. A tie is void: it shows on the board as what it is, and it never counts for or against the record.