Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons — we ran this one and left it alone
We are not publishing a call on this game.
Our model ran this game and came out a long way from where the betting market sits. We have measured what happens when we publish from that far apart, and it is the worst band we have: those calls lose more often than our confidence in them says they should. So we hold this one back rather than dress up a disagreement as an edge.
Why we publish this at all
Every NFL game gets run through our model, and every one that clears our gates is published before kickoff and graded afterwards — win or lose, on the same page. The rest get this.
We would rather tell you we looked and declined than leave a gap where a game should be. A missing page and a considered no are very different answers, and only one of them is true here.
Decision recorded Sep 18, 2026, 8:01 PM UTC
Frequently asked questions
- Who do you pick to win Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons?
- We do not have a pick on this game. Our model ran this game and came out a long way from where the betting market sits. We have measured what happens when we publish from that far apart, and it is the worst band we have: those calls lose more often than our confidence in them says they should. So we hold this one back rather than dress up a disagreement as an edge. Every game we do call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, win or lose.
- Will you publish a call before kickoff?
- Only if what we are looking at changes. This is not a placeholder for a pick we are still working on — it is the finished answer for this game unless the picture moves before kickoff.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.