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Week 2, 2026 NFL picks

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Every game on this week’s slate — the side we pick to win and our probability. There is always a pick side, so a coin-flip game shows up here as exactly that: a number just past 50%. Kickoffs run Thursday, September 17 through Monday, September 21.

14

games on the board

1

settled so far

10-5

record, all season

67%

picks correct

The Sweat Meter

Every call carries a word for how nervous to be about it. The word is our number translated: Nap-safe at 95 or better, Cruise control at 85, One eye on it at 75, Full sweat at 65, Coin flip with a lean at 55. This week, by tier:

  • 3One eye on it
  • 8Full sweat
  • 2Coin flip with a lean
  • 1Pure chaos
14 of 14 games

Thursday, September 171game

Sunday, September 2014games

Monday, September 211game

How to read this board

Buffalo Bills, 65% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 63% call that loses is a 63% call that lost, not a bad model.

Every game on the slate gets a call. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% — and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table our model was validated on. One number per row, and it is the probability: a signed spread sitting beside it read as an against-the-spread call, which is not what this desk publishes. We do project a margin, it is on the game page where there is room to label it, and no sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page.

NFL games can end in a tie — one or two a season do. A tie is void: it shows on the board as what it is, and it never counts for or against the record.