Every game on this week’s slate — the side we pick to win and our probability. There is always a pick side, so a coin-flip game shows up here as exactly that: a number just past 50%. Kickoffs run Thursday, September 17 through Monday, September 21.
14
games on the board
14
settled so far
64-34
record, all season
65%
picks correct
Thursday, September 17
Sunday, September 20
- Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansWon ✓
Philadelphia Eagles, 74% to win
Projected total 43.5
- Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersLost ✗
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 68% to win
Projected total 44.6
- Green Bay Packers at New York JetsWon ✓
Green Bay Packers, 64% to win
Projected total 46
- Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsWon ✓
New England Patriots, 74% to win
Projected total 42.7
- Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansLost ✗
Houston Texans, 69% to win
Projected total 48.9
- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsLost ✗
Chicago Bears, 57% to win
Projected total 47.9
- New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensLost ✗
Baltimore Ravens, 74% to win
Projected total 46.3
- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersLost ✗
Los Angeles Chargers, 67% to win
Projected total 42.2
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersWon ✓
San Francisco 49ers, 82% to win
Projected total 45.4
- Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysWon ✓
Dallas Cowboys, 53% to win
Projected total 50.4
- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsWon ✓
Seattle Seahawks, 79% to win
Projected total 44.7
- Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsWon ✓
Kansas City Chiefs, 65% to win
Projected total 46.5
Monday, September 21
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Buffalo Bills, 65% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 63% call that loses is a 63% call that lost, not a bad model.
Every game on the slate gets a call. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% — and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table our model was validated on. One number per row, and it is the probability: a signed spread sitting beside it read as an against-the-spread call, which is not what this desk publishes. We do project a margin, it is on the game page where there is room to label it, and no sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page.
NFL games can end in a tie — one or two a season do. A tie is void: it shows on the board as what it is, and it never counts for or against the record.