Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots — prediction and win probability
New England Patriots, 69% to win. We project them by 6.5.
The numbers
| Our pick | New England Patriots |
| Chance they win | 69% |
| Our projected spread (New England Patriots) | -6.5 |
| Projected total | 42.2 |
The win probability is the graded call, capped at 90% — the edge of the calibration table our model was validated on. The projected spread and total come from the same model. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -6 means we project that side to win by six. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (New England Patriots) | -3.5 |
| Total | 45 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Oct 6, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC
Tomorrow's card, by email
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, across every sport we cover, published before play and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Rest of the Week 5, 2026 board
- Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 11 · Jacksonville Jaguars, 74% to win
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 11 · Our pick: on the game page
- Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansSun, Oct 11 · Our pick: on the game page
- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersSun, Oct 11 · Our pick: on the game page
- Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsSun, Oct 11 · Our pick: on the game page
- Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsSun, Oct 11 · Cincinnati Bengals, 65% to win
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersSun, Oct 11 · Our pick: on the game page
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle SeahawksSun, Oct 11 · Our pick: on the game page
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets. A tie is void and counts neither way.