Every game on this week’s slate — the side we pick to win and our probability. There is always a pick side, so a coin-flip game shows up here as exactly that: a number just past 50%. Kickoffs run Thursday, October 8 through Monday, October 12.
11
games on the board
0
settled so far
33-21
record, all season
61%
picks correct
Sunday, October 11
- Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars, 74% to win
Projected total 42.8
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
- Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
- Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
New England Patriots, 69% to win
Projected total 42.2
- Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals, 65% to win
Projected total 46
- New York Giants at Washington CommandersNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Cleveland Browns at New York JetsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
- Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Pro pickOpens to everyone once it grades. Pro opens it now
- Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
Monday, October 12
Thursday, October 8
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Jacksonville Jaguars, 74% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 63% call that loses is a 63% call that lost, not a bad model.
Every game on the slate gets a call. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% — and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table our model was validated on. One number per row, and it is the probability: a signed spread sitting beside it read as an against-the-spread call, which is not what this desk publishes. We do project a margin, it is on the game page where there is room to label it, and no sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page.
NFL games can end in a tie — one or two a season do. A tie is void: it shows on the board as what it is, and it never counts for or against the record.