✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Tatjana Maria was our 60% pick, and won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Maria
Win probability: 60% Maria
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Maria Sakkari goes up against Tatjana Maria in the London round of 32. Tatjana Maria comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Maria Sakkari brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.
The ledger favors Maria Sakkari, 3-1 across their 4 meetings with Tatjana Maria. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Maria — worth more than the overall number this week.
Tatjana Maria is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Maria around 60%. The edge belongs to Maria — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Jenson Brooksby at 53%, but Ze Zhang won 7-6 5-7 6-1.
Pick: Brooksby
Win probability: 53% Brooksby
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Jenson Brooksby goes up against Ze Zhang in the Hertogenbosch round of 32. Jenson Brooksby is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (3 of the last 10). Ze Zhang has won 4 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Brooksby is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alexandra Eala was our 59% pick, and won 6-3 6-2.
Pick: Eala
Win probability: 59% Eala
Tuesday's London round of 32 pits Alexandra Eala against Shuai Zhang on grass. Alexandra Eala is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Shuai Zhang is 5-5 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Alexandra Eala is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Eala around 59%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Eala is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Frances Tiafoe at 62% before the match, and Frances Tiafoe won 7-6 4-6 6-4.
Pick: Tiafoe
Win probability: 62% Tiafoe
Daniel Altmaier and Frances Tiafoe meet in the round of 32 at Stuttgart on Tuesday. Frances Tiafoe comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daniel Altmaier is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Frances Tiafoe has had the better of this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 against Daniel Altmaier.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Tiafoe should have enough here, though Altmaier has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Gabriel Diallo at 63% lost to Adrian Mannarino (6-4 3-6 7-5).
Pick: Diallo
Win probability: 63% Diallo
Adrian Mannarino and Gabriel Diallo meet in the round of 32 at Hertogenbosch on Tuesday. Gabriel Diallo is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Adrian Mannarino is searching for form, having lost 7 in a row (1 of the last 10).
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Diallo.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Nick Kyrgios was our 75% pick, and won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Kyrgios
Win probability: 75% Kyrgios
Corentin Moutet and Nick Kyrgios meet in the round of 32 at Stuttgart on Tuesday. Nick Kyrgios has won 3 of the last 10. Corentin Moutet limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Kyrgios's 76.4% behind the first serve (against 65.6% for Moutet) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Kyrgios plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Quentin Halys at 57%, but Sho Shimabukuro won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Halys
Win probability: 57% Halys
Tuesday's Stuttgart round of 32 pits Quentin Halys against Sho Shimabukuro on grass. Quentin Halys comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Sho Shimabukuro comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Halys's 77% behind the first serve (against 72% for Shimabukuro) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Shimabukuro comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Halys is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 63% on Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, who won 7-5 6-7 7-6.
Pick: Perricard
Win probability: 63% Perricard
Tuesday's Stuttgart match pits Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard against Roman Safiullin on grass. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Roman Safiullin comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Roman Safiullin. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Perricard — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Perricard has been winning 77.8% of first-serve points to Safiullin's 72.7%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Perricard — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Iva Jovic was our 69% pick, and won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 69% Jovic
Antonia Ruzic and Iva Jovic meet in the round of 32 at London on Tuesday. Iva Jovic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Antonia Ruzic comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Iva Jovic simply rates much higher on grass, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Jovic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Leylah Fernandez at 67%, but Katie Boulter won 3-6 7-6 7-5.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 67% Fernandez
Katie Boulter and Leylah Fernandez meet in the round of 32 at London on Tuesday. Leylah Fernandez has won 6 of the last 10. Katie Boulter has won 4 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Katie Boulter, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Leylah Fernandez.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Fernandez should have enough here, though Boulter has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 60% on Janice Tjen; Greet Minnen won 7-6 6-1.
Pick: Tjen
Win probability: 60% Tjen
Greet Minnen and Janice Tjen meet in the round of 32 at Hertogenbosch on Tuesday. Janice Tjen comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Greet Minnen comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Tjen gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 87% on Jan Lennard Struff, who won 6-2 6-7 6-3.
Pick: Struff
Win probability: 87% Struff
Tuesday's Stuttgart round of 32 pits Alexis Galarneau against Jan Lennard Struff on grass. Jan Lennard Struff comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Alexis Galarneau is 5-5 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Struff's 76.4% behind the first serve (against 63.4% for Galarneau) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Galarneau comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Struff win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 74% on Dayana Yastremska, who won 6-1 6-2.
Pick: Yastremska
Win probability: 74% Yastremska
Tuesday's Hertogenbosch round of 32 pits Dayana Yastremska against Sara Bejlek on grass. Dayana Yastremska is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10). Sara Bejlek comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Yastremska's 62.6% behind the first serve (against 57.3% for Bejlek) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Bejlek needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Zeynep Sonmez was our 81% pick, and won 6-3 2-6 6-3.
Pick: Sonmez
Win probability: 81% Sonmez
Katie Volynets and Zeynep Sonmez meet in the round of 32 at Hertogenbosch on Tuesday. Zeynep Sonmez is 5-5 across recent matches. Katie Volynets comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Zeynep Sonmez leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
Sonmez's 60.3% behind the first serve (against 57% for Volynets) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Anything other than a Sonmez win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Aleksandar Kovacevic at 59% lost to Yannick Hanfmann (7-6 7-6).
Pick: Kovacevic
Win probability: 59% Kovacevic
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Aleksandar Kovacevic goes up against Yannick Hanfmann in the Stuttgart round of 32. Aleksandar Kovacevic comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Yannick Hanfmann comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The serve is where this match separates: Kovacevic has been winning 75.6% of first-serve points to Hanfmann's 69.9%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kovacevic is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Laura Siegemund was our 74% pick, and won 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Siegemund
Win probability: 74% Siegemund
Francesca Jones and Laura Siegemund meet in the round of 32 at London on Tuesday. Laura Siegemund has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Francesca Jones has won 3 of the last 10.
Laura Siegemund has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Francesca Jones.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Siegemund win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Sorana Cirstea at 64% before the match, and Sorana Cirstea won 6-4 5-7 6-2.
Pick: Cirstea
Win probability: 64% Cirstea
Maddison Inglis and Sorana Cirstea meet in the round of 32 at London on Tuesday. Sorana Cirstea is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Maddison Inglis is 5-5 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Cirstea's 62.9% behind the first serve (against 59.7% for Inglis) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Cirstea should have enough here, though Inglis has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Elena Gabriela Ruse at 88% before the match, and Elena Gabriela Ruse won 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Ruse
Win probability: 88% Ruse
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Elena Gabriela Ruse goes up against Tamara Korpatsch in the Hertogenbosch round of 32. Elena Gabriela Ruse is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Tamara Korpatsch brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
Tamara Korpatsch has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Elena Gabriela Ruse.
Ruse's 63.6% behind the first serve (against 59.8% for Korpatsch) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Korpatsch needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.