4 matches are on Monday's card at Umag, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Dino Prizmic against Vit Kopriva in the round of 32. Our calls: Prizmic over Kopriva, Assche over Lajovic, Rocha over Dzumhur, Trungelliti over Jacquet. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
Damir Dzumhur and Henrique Rocha meet in the round of 32 at Umag on Monday. Henrique Rocha limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Damir Dzumhur has won 2 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Henrique Rocha simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Rocha.
Pick: Rocha
Win probability: 60% Rocha · Most likely score: 2-0 (37%)
Monday's Umag round of 32 pits Dino Prizmic against Vit Kopriva on clay. Dino Prizmic limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Vit Kopriva has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Dino Prizmic is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Prizmic around 57%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Prizmic fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Prizmic
Win probability: 57% Prizmic · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
Monday's Umag round of 32 pits Kyrian Jacquet against Marco Trungelliti on clay. Marco Trungelliti has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Kyrian Jacquet has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Marco Trungelliti leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Trungelliti — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Trungelliti fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Trungelliti
Win probability: 55% Trungelliti · Most likely score: 2-1 (28%) · Could go long: 52% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Dusan Lajovic goes up against Luca Van Assche in the Umag round of 32. Luca Van Assche has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Dusan Lajovic limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Luca Van Assche simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Assche fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Assche
Win probability: 54% Assche · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)