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Cordenons Predictions & Picks — July 17, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 17, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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2 matches are on Friday's card at Cordenons, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Federico Bondioli against Sumit Nagal in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Nagal over Bondioli, Napolitano over Villanueva.

Federico Bondioli vs. Sumit Nagal

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Sumit Nagal at 52%, but Federico Bondioli won 1-6 7-5 6-3.

Pick: Nagal

Win probability: 52% Nagal · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%)

Federico Bondioli and Sumit Nagal meet in the quarterfinal at Cordenons on Friday. Sumit Nagal has won 8 of the last 10. Federico Bondioli has won 6 of the last 10.

Federico Bondioli leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bondioli — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Nagal comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Nagal fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Gonzalo Villanueva vs. Stefano Napolitano

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 66% on Stefano Napolitano; Gonzalo Villanueva won 6-3 7-6.

Pick: Napolitano

Win probability: 66% Napolitano · Most likely score: 2-0 (42%)

Gonzalo Villanueva and Stefano Napolitano meet in the quarterfinal at Cordenons on Friday. Stefano Napolitano is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Gonzalo Villanueva is 7-3 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The serve is where this match separates: Napolitano has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Villanueva's 63.3%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Napolitano comes in off a compressed schedule. Napolitano should have enough here, though Villanueva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

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Updated Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.