Maiden.bet

Granby Predictions & Picks — July 17, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 17, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

Share card

3 matches are on Friday's card at Granby, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Gea against Liam Draxl in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Gea over Draxl, Vukic over Galarneau, Sekulic over Cassone.

The boldest call on the card: Sekulic over Cassone — the market disagrees with us there.

Murphy Cassone vs. Philip Sekulic

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Philip Sekulic at 52% lost to Murphy Cassone (6-2 6-1).

Pick: SekulicUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Cassone the favorite; our numbers say Sekulic.

Win probability: 52% Sekulic · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%)

Friday's Granby quarterfinal pits Murphy Cassone against Philip Sekulic on hard. Philip Sekulic is 7-3 across recent matches. Murphy Cassone has won 4 of the last 10.

The ledger favors Murphy Cassone, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Philip Sekulic. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Cassone — worth more than the overall number this week.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Cassone comes in off a compressed schedule; Sekulic comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Sekulic gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Arthur Gea vs. Liam Draxl

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Arthur Gea was our 55% pick, and won 7-6 2-6 6-0.

Pick: Gea

Win probability: 55% Gea · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

Arthur Gea and Liam Draxl meet in the quarterfinal at Granby on Friday. Arthur Gea is 5-5 across recent matches. Liam Draxl has won 6 of the last 10.

The ledger favors Arthur Gea, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Liam Draxl. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Gea — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Gea arrives with very little recovery time; Draxl comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Gea fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Aleksandar Vukic vs. Alexis Galarneau

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Aleksandar Vukic at 53% before the match, and Aleksandar Vukic won 7-6 7-6.

Pick: Vukic

Win probability: 53% Vukic · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%) · Could go long: 47% chance of a full three sets

Friday's Granby quarterfinal pits Aleksandar Vukic against Alexis Galarneau on hard. Aleksandar Vukic is 4-6 across recent matches. Alexis Galarneau is 6-4 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Vukic's 73.1% behind the first serve (against 69.1% for Galarneau) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vukic is exactly that — a lean.

Get the free ebook + tomorrow's picks

Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.

Updated Jul 17, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.