Maiden.bet

Kitzbuhel Predictions & Picks — July 21, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 21, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

Share card

7 matches are on Tuesday's card at Kitzbuhel, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Miomir Kecmanovic against Sebastian Baez in the round of 32. Our calls: Kecmanovic over Baez, Halys over Djere, Molcan over Ofner, Cerundolo over Trungelliti, Struff over Shevchenko, Vallejo over Feldbausch, and 1 more.

The boldest call on the card: Halys over Djere — the market disagrees with us there.

Daniel Altmaier vs. Raphael Collignon

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Raphael Collignon at 74% lost to Daniel Altmaier (6-3 6-2).

Pick: Collignon

Win probability: 74% Collignon · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (48%)

Daniel Altmaier and Raphael Collignon meet in the round of 32 at Kitzbuhel on Tuesday. Raphael Collignon has won 4 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Daniel Altmaier is 5-5 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.1% versus 71.1% on first-serve points in Collignon's favor. If Collignon plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Marco Trungelliti

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Juan Manuel Cerundolo at 66%, but Marco Trungelliti won 6-2 6-1.

Pick: Cerundolo

Win probability: 66% Cerundolo · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)

Tuesday's Kitzbuhel round of 32 pits Juan Manuel Cerundolo against Marco Trungelliti on clay. Juan Manuel Cerundolo has won 6 of the last 10. Marco Trungelliti comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Cerundolo should have enough here, though Trungelliti has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Laslo Djere vs. Quentin Halys

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 64% on Quentin Halys, who won 7-6 6-4.

Pick: HalysUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Djere the favorite; our numbers say Halys.

Win probability: 64% Halys · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Laslo Djere goes up against Quentin Halys in the Kitzbuhel round of 32. Quentin Halys comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Laslo Djere has won 5 of the last 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Halys's 77% behind the first serve (against 72.2% for Djere) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Halys should have enough here, though Djere has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Daniel Vallejo vs. Kilian Feldbausch

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 64% on Daniel Vallejo; Kilian Feldbausch won 7-6 6-1.

Pick: Vallejo

Win probability: 64% Vallejo · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)

Tuesday's Kitzbuhel round of 32 pits Daniel Vallejo against Kilian Feldbausch on clay. Daniel Vallejo comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Kilian Feldbausch has dropped 2 straight and sits at 7-3 over the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Hold strength tells the story — 66.8% versus 63.2% on first-serve points in Vallejo's favor. Vallejo should have enough here, though Feldbausch has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Alexander Shevchenko vs. Jan Lennard Struff

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jan Lennard Struff at 57% before the match, and Jan Lennard Struff won 3-6 7-6 6-4.

Pick: Struff

Win probability: 57% Struff · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)

Tuesday's Kitzbuhel round of 32 pits Alexander Shevchenko against Jan Lennard Struff on clay. Jan Lennard Struff has won 7 of the last 10. Alexander Shevchenko comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Jan Lennard Struff has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Alexander Shevchenko.

Struff's 77.2% behind the first serve (against 70.1% for Shevchenko) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Struff gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Alex Molcan vs. Sebastian Ofner

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Alex Molcan was our 57% pick, and won 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Molcan

Win probability: 57% Molcan · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)

Tuesday's Kitzbuhel round of 32 pits Alex Molcan against Sebastian Ofner on clay. Alex Molcan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Sebastian Ofner has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

Alex Molcan has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Sebastian Ofner. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Molcan — worth more than the overall number this week.

Alex Molcan simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Molcan fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Sebastian Baez

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Miomir Kecmanovic at 55% lost to Sebastian Baez (6-3 3-6 6-4).

Pick: Kecmanovic

Win probability: 55% Kecmanovic · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)

Miomir Kecmanovic and Sebastian Baez meet in the round of 32 at Kitzbuhel on Tuesday. Miomir Kecmanovic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Sebastian Baez has won 7 of the last 10.

The ledger favors Miomir Kecmanovic, 3-0 across their 3 meetings with Sebastian Baez. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Kecmanovic — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Kecmanovic has been winning 71% of first-serve points to Baez's 65.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Kecmanovic gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Get the free ebook + tomorrow's picks

Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.

Updated Jul 20, 2026, 9:01 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.