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Tampere Predictions & Picks — July 22, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 22, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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2 matches are on Wednesday's card at Tampere, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Andrej Nedic against Tom Gentzsch in the round of 16. Our calls: Gentzsch over Nedic, Barton over Bailly. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Gentzsch over Nedic — the market disagrees with us there.

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Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs. Hynek Barton

Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Hynek Barton meet in the round of 16 at Tampere on Wednesday. Hynek Barton is 6-4 across recent matches. Gilles Arnaud Bailly is 4-6 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The serve is where this match separates: Barton has been winning 72.5% of first-serve points to Bailly's 66%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Bailly needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Pick: Barton

Win probability: 72% Barton · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Hynek Barton was our 72% pick, and won 6-3 6-2.

Andrej Nedic vs. Tom Gentzsch

Wednesday's Tampere round of 16 pits Andrej Nedic against Tom Gentzsch on clay. Tom Gentzsch comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Andrej Nedic has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Hold strength tells the story — 72.3% versus 62.8% on first-serve points in Gentzsch's favor. Nedic comes in off a compressed schedule; Gentzsch comes in off a compressed schedule. Gentzsch should have enough here, though Nedic has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Pick: GentzschUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Nedic the favorite; our numbers say Gentzsch.

Win probability: 64% Gentzsch · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 64% on Tom Gentzsch, who won 4-6 6-2 6-0.

Updated Jul 21, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.