3 matches are on Thursday's card at Livesport Prague Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Maria Timofeeva against Sara Bejlek in the round of 16. Our calls: Timofeeva over Bejlek, Tagger over Hontama, Tararudee over Bartunkova.
The boldest call on the card: Timofeeva over Bejlek — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: TimofeevaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Bejlek the favorite; our numbers say Timofeeva.
Win probability: 62% Timofeeva · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Thursday's Livesport Prague Open round of 16 pits Maria Timofeeva against Sara Bejlek on clay. Maria Timofeeva is 7-3 across recent matches. Sara Bejlek is 4-6 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. The edge belongs to Timofeeva — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: TararudeeUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Bartunkova the favorite; our numbers say Tararudee.
Win probability: 55% Tararudee · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Lanlana Tararudee goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Livesport Prague Open round of 16. Lanlana Tararudee has won 7 of the last 10. Nikola Bartunkova has won 6 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Tararudee gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Tagger
Win probability: 52% Tagger · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Lilli Tagger and Mai Hontama meet in the round of 16 at Livesport Prague Open on Thursday. Lilli Tagger has won 3 of the last 10. Mai Hontama is 3-7 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Tagger has been winning 66.4% of first-serve points to Hontama's 58.2%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Tagger gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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