3 matches are on Thursday's card at Livesport Prague Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Maria Timofeeva against Sara Bejlek in the round of 16. Our calls: Timofeeva over Bejlek, Tagger over Hontama, Tararudee over Bartunkova. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Timofeeva over Bejlek — the market disagrees with us there.
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Thursday's Livesport Prague Open round of 16 pits Maria Timofeeva against Sara Bejlek on clay. Maria Timofeeva is 7-3 across recent matches. Sara Bejlek is 4-6 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. The edge belongs to Timofeeva — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: TimofeevaUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Bejlek the favorite; our numbers say Timofeeva.
Win probability: 62% Timofeeva · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Lanlana Tararudee goes up against Nikola Bartunkova in the Livesport Prague Open round of 16. Lanlana Tararudee has won 7 of the last 10. Nikola Bartunkova has won 6 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Tararudee gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: TararudeeUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Bartunkova the favorite; our numbers say Tararudee.
Win probability: 55% Tararudee · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
Lilli Tagger and Mai Hontama meet in the round of 16 at Livesport Prague Open on Thursday. Lilli Tagger has won 3 of the last 10. Mai Hontama is 3-7 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Tagger has been winning 66.4% of first-serve points to Hontama's 58.2%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Tagger gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Tagger
Win probability: 52% Tagger · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)