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Segovia Predictions & Picks — July 26, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 26, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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One match is on Sunday's card at Segovia, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Luka Pavlovic against Matteo Martineau in the final. Our calls: Martineau over Pavlovic. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Martineau over Pavlovic — the market disagrees with us there.

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Luka Pavlovic vs. Matteo Martineau

The Segovia title is on the line on Sunday, when Luka Pavlovic meets Matteo Martineau. Matteo Martineau brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Luka Pavlovic has won 4 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Pavlovic comes in off a compressed schedule; Martineau comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Martineau gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: MartineauUpset call

Upset call — the market favors Pavlovic; our numbers say Martineau.

Win probability: 52% Martineau · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Matteo Martineau at 52% lost to Luka Pavlovic (6-4 3-6 6-1). It stays up, like every other miss.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 7:31 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.