3 matches are on Monday's card at San Marino, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniel Rincon against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo in the round of 32. Our calls: Rincon over Angelo, Djere over Basilashvili, Napolitano over Muller.
The boldest call on the card: Napolitano over Muller — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Rincon
Win probability: 58% Rincon · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Daniel Rincon and Juan Carlos Prado Angelo meet in the round of 32 at San Marino on Monday. Daniel Rincon has won 6 of the last 10. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Rincon is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Djere
Win probability: 66% Djere · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
Laslo Djere and Nikoloz Basilashvili meet in the round of 32 at San Marino on Monday. Laslo Djere is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Nikoloz Basilashvili is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Laslo Djere has had the better of this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 against Nikoloz Basilashvili. On clay specifically it reads 4-1 Djere — worth more than the overall number this week.
Djere's 72.3% behind the first serve (against 68.7% for Basilashvili) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Djere — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: NapolitanoUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Muller; our numbers say Napolitano.
Win probability: 70% Napolitano · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Monday's San Marino round of 32 pits Alexandre Muller against Stefano Napolitano on clay. Stefano Napolitano is 7-3 across recent matches. Alexandre Muller has dropped 9 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The serve is where this match separates: Napolitano has been winning 70.9% of first-serve points to Muller's 67.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Napolitano — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.