3 matches are on Monday's card at San Marino, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniel Rincon against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo in the round of 32. Our calls: Rincon over Angelo, Napolitano over Muller, Djere over Basilashvili. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Napolitano over Muller — the market disagrees with us there.
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Daniel Rincon and Juan Carlos Prado Angelo meet in the round of 32 at San Marino on Monday. Daniel Rincon has won 6 of the last 10. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Rincon is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Rincon
Win probability: 58% Rincon · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Laslo Djere and Nikoloz Basilashvili meet in the round of 32 at San Marino on Monday. Laslo Djere is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Nikoloz Basilashvili is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Laslo Djere has had the better of this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 against Nikoloz Basilashvili. On clay specifically it reads 4-1 Djere — worth more than the overall number this week.
Djere's 72.3% behind the first serve (against 68.7% for Basilashvili) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Djere — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Djere
Win probability: 66% Djere · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
Monday's San Marino round of 32 pits Alexandre Muller against Stefano Napolitano on clay. Stefano Napolitano is 7-3 across recent matches. Alexandre Muller has dropped 9 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The serve is where this match separates: Napolitano has been winning 70.9% of first-serve points to Muller's 67.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Napolitano — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: NapolitanoUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Muller; our numbers say Napolitano.
Win probability: 70% Napolitano · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)