3 matches are on Thursday's card at Liberec, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Franco Roncadelli against Norbert Gombos in the round of 16. Our calls: Roncadelli over Gombos, Feldbausch over Ajdukovic, Barton over Bueno.
Pick: Barton
Win probability: 68% Barton · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Gonzalo Bueno and Hynek Barton meet in the round of 16 at Liberec on Thursday. Hynek Barton comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Gonzalo Bueno is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Barton has been winning 72.5% of first-serve points to Bueno's 62.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Barton — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Roncadelli
Win probability: 52% Roncadelli · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Thursday's Liberec round of 16 pits Franco Roncadelli against Norbert Gombos on clay. Franco Roncadelli comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Norbert Gombos has won 3 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Roncadelli is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Feldbausch
Win probability: 66% Feldbausch · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
Duje Ajdukovic and Kilian Feldbausch meet in the round of 16 at Liberec on Thursday. Kilian Feldbausch has won 6 of the last 10. Duje Ajdukovic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Kilian Feldbausch simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Feldbausch.
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