2 matches are on Monday's card at Toronto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexandra Eala against Belinda Bencic in the round of 16. Our calls: Bencic over Eala, Swiatek over Shnaider.
Pick: Bencic
Win probability: 52% Bencic · Market: -108 · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Alexandra Eala and Belinda Bencic meet in the round of 16 at Toronto on Monday. Belinda Bencic is 8-2 across recent matches. Alexandra Eala is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Bencic's 66.4% behind the first serve (against 60.4% for Eala) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bencic fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 64% Swiatek · Market: -244 · Sets: 2 (68%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Diana Shnaider goes up against Iga Swiatek in the Toronto quarterfinal. Iga Swiatek has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Diana Shnaider brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Swiatek — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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