2 matches are on Wednesday's card at Todi, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniel Elahi Galan against F. A. Gomez in the round of 16. Our calls: Gomez over Galan, Izquierdo over Mrva.
Pick: Izquierdo
Win probability: 62% Izquierdo · Market: -146 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Wednesday's Todi round of 16 pits Maxim Mrva against Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo on clay. Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo is 5-5 across recent matches. Maxim Mrva has won 5 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. The edge belongs to Izquierdo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Gomez
Win probability: 51% Gomez · Market: -140 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (26%)
Wednesday's Todi round of 16 pits Daniel Elahi Galan against F. A. Gomez on clay. F. A. Gomez has won 5 of the last 10. Daniel Elahi Galan comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
F. A. Gomez simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Gomez is exactly that — a lean.
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