3 matches are on Wednesday's card at Prague, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Kimmer Coppejans against Max Hans Rehberg in the round of 16. Our calls: Coppejans over Rehberg, Molleker over Jianu, Mrva over Cretu.
The boldest call on the card: Coppejans over Rehberg — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Molleker
Win probability: 53% Molleker · Market: -120 · Sets: 3 (52%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)
Filip Cristian Jianu and Rudolf Molleker meet in the round of 16 at Prague on Wednesday. Rudolf Molleker has won 5 of the last 10. Filip Cristian Jianu comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Molleker has been winning 69.6% of first-serve points to Jianu's 63.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Jianu comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Molleker fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: CoppejansUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Rehberg the favorite; our numbers say Coppejans.
Win probability: 53% Coppejans · Market: +124 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Kimmer Coppejans goes up against Max Hans Rehberg in the Prague round of 16. Kimmer Coppejans has won 6 of the last 10. Max Hans Rehberg is 5-5 across recent matches.
Kimmer Coppejans is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Coppejans around 53%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Coppejans is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Mrva
Win probability: 61% Mrva · Market: -158 · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Cezar Cretu goes up against Maxim Mrva in the Prague round of 16. Maxim Mrva brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Cezar Cretu comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Mrva comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Mrva.
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