2 matches are on Thursday's card at Como, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jay Clarke against Pedro Martinez in the round of 16. Our calls: Martinez over Clarke, Feldbausch over Nedic.
Pick: Feldbausch
Win probability: 64% Feldbausch · Market: -184 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Thursday's Como round of 16 pits Andrej Nedic against Kilian Feldbausch on clay. Kilian Feldbausch is 6-4 across recent matches. Andrej Nedic has won 4 of the last 10.
Kilian Feldbausch simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Feldbausch.
Pick: Martinez
Win probability: 53% Martinez · Market: -140 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jay Clarke goes up against Pedro Martinez in the Como round of 16. Pedro Martinez has won 5 of the last 10. Jay Clarke has won 4 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Martinez is exactly that — a lean.
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